SoFi stock has rebounded in recent weeks, climbing from its year-to-date low of about $15 to around $19 today. Even so, the shares remain roughly 42% below their all-time high. CEO Anthony Noto has attributed much of the weakness to the broader pullback in fintech stocks.
With the company’s earnings due later this month, the key question is whether SoFi can extend its recovery or resume its downtrend.
SoFi stock has underperformed the market despite strong growth
SoFi Technology has lagged the market this year, with its stock falling by nearly 30%, while the Nasdaq 100 has jumped by 18%.
This retreat happened even as the company published strong results and launched new products in its goal to become the go-to app for financial services. It relaunched crypto trading, launched a new stablecoin (SoFiUSD), Coach, a new AI solution offering financial advise, and a new Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) solution.
SoFi’s finances have done well this year. Its last financial results showed that its net revenue jumped 41% in the first quarter to $1.1 billion, higher than what analysts were expecting. This growth happened as the number of members jumped 35%, while its products rose 39%. Its new members rose by a record 1.1 million in Q1 to 14.7 million.
Most importantly, the company’s growth is expected to continue in the foreseeable future. Its upcoming results later this month are expected to show that its revenue jumped 30% to $1.12 billion. These are solid numbers for a company in the financial services industry, and one that has not made any major acquisitions recently.
The annual revenue is expected to jump to $4.68 billion this year followed by $5.78 billion next year. Also, its profits are expected to keep rising, with the earnings per share reaching 59 cents this year, followed by 81 cents next year.
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CEO Noto believes the stock has dipped because of sector weakness
In a CNBC interview this week, CEO Anthony Noto argued that the ongoing SoFi weakness is primarily because of its sector. Indeed, most fintech stocks like PayPal, Shift4 Payments, and Coinbase have all dropped this year.
Another reason is that the company diluted its shareholders earlier this year, raising $1.58 billion by issuing 57.7 million new shares. In total, the company raised over $3.8 billion in six months.
Investors are also questioning SoFi’s business after Muddy Waters published a highly bearish report. It accused the company of inflating the fair value of its loan portfolio, underreporting its losses, and having hidden debt. SoFi denied those allegations.
Finally, there have been concerns about its valuation, with its forward price-to-earnings ratio being 31, and its PEG ratio rising to 9.12. The company justifies its valuation by using the Rule of 40, which stands at 72%. It was the 18th consecutive quarter of having a score higher than 40%.
SoFi Technologies stock price analysis
SoFi stock chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the SoFi stock has jumped from $15 to $18.72 today. It has already crossed the 50-day moving average, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been in an uptrend after bottoming at 21 a few months ago. It stands at 60 today, and the uptrend is continuing. As such, this RSI suggests that it has more upside before it gets to overbought levels.
The risk, however, is that it has slowly formed a rising wedge pattern, which may lead to more downside. In this case, it may be ideal to wait for the stock to cross the upper side of the wedge for confirmation of the bullish breakout. A move above that level will point to more gains towards $25.
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