Joby Aviation stock remains in a freefall this week and is hovering at its lowest level since May 2025. It slipped to $6.30, down more than 70% from its high last year, with its valuation falling from over $17.4 billion to $6.2 billion today. This retreat may continue, even as the company’s commercialization nears.
Joby Aviation is at an inflection point
Joby Aviation is one of the top companies that seeks to disrupt the transportation industry. It has spent the last 17 years working on its electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL).
In this period, it has spent billions of dollars researching and working on its flights. To achieve that, it has received substantial funding from companies like Baillie Gifford and Toyota. Toyota has now become a crucial shareholder with a 14.3% stake.
The company has also raised capital through dilution. It has raised cash by selling shares in the past few years. As a result, the outstanding shares have jumped from 604 million in 2022 to 986 million today.
Most importantly, Joby has used this period to seek FAA certification, which it will receive later this year. The company has also expanded its manufacturing process and is using Toyota’s track record in the industry. It has also made some notable customer deals, including with ANA and Virgin Atlantic.
At the same time, it is now expanding its presence in the defense industry. It is doing that by spending $500 million to acquire Resonant Sciences, which will now become its defense business.
Resonant made over $100 million in revenue in the trailing twelve months and is growing by 40%. This matters because the US government plans to spend over $1.5 trillion on defense.
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The company plans to start its commercial events this year, and then scale it in the foreseeable future. Taken together, its commercialization and the ongoing pivot towards the defense industry mean that it is at an inflection point.
Analysts expect that its revenue, excluding Resonant, will continue growing, with its annual revenue rising to $125 million this year and $299 million next year.
Concerns about its business remains
Joby Aviation stock has slipped in the past few months as investors remain concerned about its business. This explains why it has a short interest of about 10%, a sign that investors expect it to continue its downward trend.
One of the key concerns is that it will take a long time for the company to become profitable even when the commercialization process starts. This will see it continue raising capital, possibly through share sales. It recently announced a $750 million share sale to finance its Resonant business.
Joby Aviation stock technical analysis
JOBY Aviation chart | Source: TradingView
The weekly chart shows that the JOBY share price has slumped in the past few years, falling from a record high of $21 to the current $6.30. It has formed a descending channel, a sign that bears remain in control.
The stock has dropped below the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. It also fell below the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Also, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has risen to 17.30 and is pointing upwards.
Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling, potentially to the key support level of $4.87, its lowest level in October 2024 and April last year.
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